📝 Abstract

In the introductory part the contribution declares the importance of this issue in the context of the common European agricultural policy. So far, no expeditive method has been available for determination of survival of agricultural businesses. A theoretical basis for development of the new method has been describe during the principle of binary logistic (logit) regression and a testing set of data from Czech agricultural businesses was analyzed.\nPreconditions were defined for creation of the model and individual stages of its development were described. In the results section the contribution presents a model with high predictive\npower (99.9 %). We can definitely conclude that the newly designed method makes it possible to predict survival of agricultural businesses in the conditions of Czech agricultural sector.\nThe tool can be used both by managements of those businesses, as a high-level indicator for management purposes, and for other stakeholders, i.e. creditors, owners, competitors and\nothers. An assumption has been formulated that it may be possible to develop similar models for the individual countries in Europe and worldwide which would take into account their specific conditions.

🏷️ Keywords

agricultural businessfinancial health of a businessbankruptcy prediction modelsbinary logistic regressiondiscriminant analysisconfusion matrix
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Citation

Marek Vochozka, Jarmila Strakova, Jan Vachal. (2021). Model to evaluate and predict survival of agricultural businesses. Cithara Journal, 61(1). ISSN: 0009-7527